Jefferies on Transport. & Logistics/Rail & Intermodal: Volumes Continue to Outpace 3Q

November 25, 2011 7:43 AM EST
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Jefferies on Transport. & Logistics: Rail & Intermodal Volumes (Week 46):
Volumes Continue to Outpace 3Q

Jefferies analyst said, "U.S. total rail volumes continued their recent uptick (albeit at a slower pace), rising 2.0% YoY in Week 46 (vs. +2.6% YoY in Week 45). Volumes so far in 4Q (+2.6% YoY) are growing at a faster clip than in 3Q (+0.5% YoY). Autos posted another strong YoY gain (+16.3% YoY). Macro datapoints are mixed, but we remain encouraged."

"Railroad performance measures (average train speed). Canadian Pacific's (NYSE: CP) velocity was up 7.7% YoY in Week 46 (following a 5.9% YoY gain in Week 45), whereas Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) experienced a 0.7% YoY gain. Conversely, Norfolk Southern's (NYSE: NSC) average train speed fell 5.9% YoY in Week 46 (vs. -3.3% YoY in Week 45 and -2.3% YoY on a six-week moving average basis), which was its weakest YoY reading since mid-September. Meanwhile, velocity decreased 1.4% YoY for CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX) and 3.4% YoY for Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP)."

"Railroad Performance Measures (average terminal dwell time). CNI (-0.6% YoY) and CP (-20.8% YoY) were the only rails we cover to experience a YoY decrease (i.e., improvement) in average Week 46 terminal dwell time. The average wait time increased (i.e., deteriorated) for NSC (+6.4% YoY), UNP (+5.4% YoY), and CSX (+7.3% YoY)."


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