Barclays on U.S. Retail Softlines: 2011 Holiday Outlook - Abercrombie (ANF) Best Positioned in Teen Sector
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Up: 7 | Down: 5 | New: 25
Rating Summary:
14 Buy, 24 Hold, 5 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 7 | Down: 5 | New: 25
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Barclays on U.S. Retail Softlines: 2011 Holiday Outlook
Barclays analyst says, "With the start of the holiday season around the corner, we remain encouraged by recent retail sales trends with sales continuing to beat expectations. Despite extreme market volatility, the weak economy, and uncooperative weather, back to school sales for the U.S. Specialty Softlines sector came in up 2.3%, better than our original 1.9% estimate. The 70% correlation and 50% R-squared between Back-to-School and Holiday sales going back to 1993 causes us to remain relatively optimistic about holiday (overall retail correlation is 85% and 73% R-squared). Other factors that cause us to be more optimistic going forward are the declining impact of gas prices on consumer inflation, the fact the cotton prices are normalizing and the additional day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year."
"We are expecting a 2.1% increase in holiday comp for our Barclays Capital US Softlines Same Store Sales Index, compared with a 3.6% increase last year, above our initial estimate of a 1.9% increase. Our consolidated comp expectations reflect a 1.1% increase for the teen specialty retailers, a 3.0% increase for women's specialty, a 3.4% decrease for men's and women's specialty, a 2.1% increase for children's specialty, a 3.6% increase for the off-price sector, and a 6.6% increase for other specialty retailers."
"In our view, Abercrombie (NYSE: ANF) is the best positioned retailer within the teen sector to gain market share, Children's Place (Nasdaq: PLCE) is best positioned within kids, White House Black Market is best positioned within the women's sector, TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) is best positioned within the off-price sector, and overall we expect the best holiday comps out of Limited (NYSE: LTD) and Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU)."
Barclays analyst says, "With the start of the holiday season around the corner, we remain encouraged by recent retail sales trends with sales continuing to beat expectations. Despite extreme market volatility, the weak economy, and uncooperative weather, back to school sales for the U.S. Specialty Softlines sector came in up 2.3%, better than our original 1.9% estimate. The 70% correlation and 50% R-squared between Back-to-School and Holiday sales going back to 1993 causes us to remain relatively optimistic about holiday (overall retail correlation is 85% and 73% R-squared). Other factors that cause us to be more optimistic going forward are the declining impact of gas prices on consumer inflation, the fact the cotton prices are normalizing and the additional day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year."
"We are expecting a 2.1% increase in holiday comp for our Barclays Capital US Softlines Same Store Sales Index, compared with a 3.6% increase last year, above our initial estimate of a 1.9% increase. Our consolidated comp expectations reflect a 1.1% increase for the teen specialty retailers, a 3.0% increase for women's specialty, a 3.4% decrease for men's and women's specialty, a 2.1% increase for children's specialty, a 3.6% increase for the off-price sector, and a 6.6% increase for other specialty retailers."
"In our view, Abercrombie (NYSE: ANF) is the best positioned retailer within the teen sector to gain market share, Children's Place (Nasdaq: PLCE) is best positioned within kids, White House Black Market is best positioned within the women's sector, TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) is best positioned within the off-price sector, and overall we expect the best holiday comps out of Limited (NYSE: LTD) and Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU)."
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