Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: Updated 2011 Holiday Outlook
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Rating Summary:
45 Buy, 13 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: Updated 2011 Holiday Outlook
Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "As we head into the important holiday selling season, we note that trends at retail have generally been solid following a better than expected Back to School season. We do remain mindful that the consumer continues to be under some pressure with still-elevated levels of unemployment and higher gas prices year over year. We are expecting a 2.5-3.0% increase in holiday comp for our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Department Stores Same Store-Sales Index, compared with a 1.4% increase last year, and slightly better than our initial estimate of 2-2.5%. Our total holiday comp estimate reflects our sub-sector comp expectations for a 2-2.5% increase at the department stores, a 1.5-2% increase at the discount stores, a ~6.0% increase at the warehouse clubs, and a ~6.0% increase at the luxury retailers. Excluding Walmart (NYSE: WMT), we expect Holiday comps to be up 4-4.5% for our overall index."
"We anticipate that e-commerce and m-commerce will again be an important factor this holiday season, with several companies offering free shipping from their online stores and outlining other online and mobile initiatives. Fedex expects a 12% jump in holiday shipments this year, with record volumes driven by increased online shopping. An NRF survey determined that 50% of smartphone owners and 71% of tablet owners intend to use the devices for holiday shopping."
Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "As we head into the important holiday selling season, we note that trends at retail have generally been solid following a better than expected Back to School season. We do remain mindful that the consumer continues to be under some pressure with still-elevated levels of unemployment and higher gas prices year over year. We are expecting a 2.5-3.0% increase in holiday comp for our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Department Stores Same Store-Sales Index, compared with a 1.4% increase last year, and slightly better than our initial estimate of 2-2.5%. Our total holiday comp estimate reflects our sub-sector comp expectations for a 2-2.5% increase at the department stores, a 1.5-2% increase at the discount stores, a ~6.0% increase at the warehouse clubs, and a ~6.0% increase at the luxury retailers. Excluding Walmart (NYSE: WMT), we expect Holiday comps to be up 4-4.5% for our overall index."
"We anticipate that e-commerce and m-commerce will again be an important factor this holiday season, with several companies offering free shipping from their online stores and outlining other online and mobile initiatives. Fedex expects a 12% jump in holiday shipments this year, with record volumes driven by increased online shopping. An NRF survey determined that 50% of smartphone owners and 71% of tablet owners intend to use the devices for holiday shopping."
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