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UBS Maintains a 'Neutral' on Tesoro Corporation (TSO); Raising Estimates on 3Q Beat/4Q Guidance

November 4, 2011 1:58 PM EDT
Get Alerts TSO Hot Sheet
Price: $99.53 --0%

Rating Summary:
    17 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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UBS maintains a 'Neutral' on Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO) price target raised from $25 to $27.

UBS analyst says, "We're increasing our 2011/12E EPS to $5.83 and $4.65 from $5.19 and $4.52 to reflect better than expected 3Q results, 4Q throughput guidance, and improved refining margin capture rate assumptions. Our companywide 4Q throughput forecast increases 7% to 575MBld, reflecting the mid-point of TSO’s 4Q guidance (555-595MBbl). Notably, this is 700 bps above TSO 3-year avg 4Q run-rate."

"Here’s three reasons to be constructive on TSO in the near-term: 1) we estimate there may be a wave of upward revisions to 4Q consensus estimates given TSO’s strong throughput guidance and sequential improvement in 4Q West Coast benchmark margins (up 26% QTD); 2) TSO has an analyst meeting scheduled for Dec 5 which could provide positive catalysts; 3) short interest at the end of Oct was 12% of float (highest in our coverage universe)—an unwinding of this would be supportive of shares."

For more ratings news on Tesoro Corporation click here and for the rating history of Tesoro Corporation click here.

Shares of Tesoro Corporation closed at $27.72 yesterday.


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