Barclays on North America Metals & Mining: Initiating Coverage: Rising From the Depths

November 3, 2011 1:48 PM EDT
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Barclays on North America Metals & Mining: Initiating Coverage: Rising From the Depths

Barclays analyst, David Gagliano, said, "A buying opportunity, despite continued volatility. We are initiating coverage of the North America Metals & Mining sector with a 1-Positive sector rating. Volatility is inevitable as investors adjust to a muddled near-term global demand outlook, but we believe this will prove to be a buying opportunity for the following reasons: 1) the core macro data points that typically drive the shares are more likely to turn positive over the next 6-12 months, rather than continuing to be exceptionally weak; 2) underlying supply/demand fundamentals for most metals/bulks are not as weak as the equity market is implying, even after adjusting for slower consumption growth; 3) our scenario analysis suggests the stocks currently represent a favorable risk/reward opportunity (i.e., more upside than downside); and 4) a downward move on the global cost curve leaves most US metals & mining producers in a significantly better position than in prior downturns to manage through periods of weak prices and demand."

"Our top picks are Freeport-McMoRan C&G (NYSE: FCX)(PT$63), Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC)(PT$20), and CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX)(PT$63). We are initiating coverage on a total of 15 names. We initiate with 1-Overweight ratings on FCX, SWC, CNX, Alpha Natural (NSE: ANR)(PT$34), Peabody (NYSE: BTU)(PT$61), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS)(PT$14), and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX)($17). We initiate with 2-Equal Weight ratings on U.S. Steel (NYSE: X)(PT$30), Nucor (NYSE: NUE)(PT$46), Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD)(PT$17), Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI)(PT$22), Cloud Peak (NYSE: CLD)(PT$27), Patroit Coal (NYSE: PCX)(PT$15), Alcoa (NYSE: AA)(PT$13), and Noranda Aluminum (NYSE: NOR)(PT$11)."


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