Q3 Preview: CF Industries (CF) Could Top on Improving Nitrogen, Phosphate Prices

November 1, 2011 2:17 PM EDT
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Price: $129.60 +3.10%

Rating Summary:
    15 Buy, 16 Hold, 5 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Shares of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are trading lower Tuesday heading into its third-quarter earnings report.

After the market close, CF is expected to report earnings of $4.79 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion. Earnings would be down nearly 30 percent from $6.75 reported last quarter, but up markedly from 78 cents reported in the same period last year.

Shares fell about 12.7 percent through the quarter and are up 27 percent since. CF has traded within a range of $112.23 to $192.70 over the last 52-week time frame.

At the end of last quarter, CF carried a book value of $67.90 per share and cash of $18.94 per share. Excluding cash, and shares trade for 6.8x next year;s earnings estimate, compared with 7.5x at Agrium (NYSE: AGU), and 10x for Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).

Data from Bloomberg has 10 analyst at Buy, six with a Hold, and one at Sell. The price target average is $187.50, with a low of $147 and high of $248.

Analyst Comments:
Goldman Sachs is modeling for earnings of $4.91, ahead of consensus views, with revs of $1.492 billion. Goldman notes nitrogen spot prices have improved in the second half of 2011. The firm commented, "We note sales numbers for both nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) have surprised to the upside driven by an exceptionally tight supply dynamic and firm demand ahead of fall application season."

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out CF's past performance at Streetinsider's CF Income Statement.


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