Q3 Preview: Strong Results Expected for Ford (F) as Production Ramps

October 25, 2011 2:48 PM EDT
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Price: $14.41 +3.00%

Rating Summary:
    12 Buy, 23 Hold, 4 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) shares are modestly lower Tuesday afternoon heading into its third-quarter earnings release, expected out Wednesday before the market opens.

Analysts are looking for Ford to report earnings of 45 cents per share and revenue of $29.86 billion. Earnings would be a 31 percent dip from 65 cents reported last quarter, and 6.3 percent dip from the same period last year. Ford has beat estimates by an average of 4.6 percent over the last four quarters.

Ford last reported a book value of $1.40 per share last quarter. The stock currently trades for about 7.1x next years earnings, compared with 5.7x at General Motors (NYSE: GM) and 15.0x at Toyota (NYSE: TM).

Shares have plummeted through the quarter, dropping about 30 percent to $9.67 at the end of September. The stock is up 2.9 since, but is about 26 percent lower on the year.Ford shares have traded within a range of $9.05 to $18.97 over the last 52-week time frame.

Data from Bloomberg has 15 analysts with a Buy rating on Ford, six at Hold, and none with a Sell-equivalent rating. The Street price target average is $17.50, with a low of $15 and high of $22.

Ford recently ratified its contract with the UAW, which shouldn't play into this quarter's earnings, but may provide some upside for investors as Ford said it should only boost costs by less than 1 percent annually.

Analyst Comments:
Goldman Sachs sees upside heading into third-quarter earnings, and recommends investors buy shares ahead of the report. Goldman said, "We believe Ford’s 3Q production in North America could come in above its 630K guidance by almost 10K units with bulk of the strength coming from higher build rates for some key products like the Fiesta, Expedition, Explorer, and the F-Series. In terms of pricing, we believe that the incentive activity both at the industry level and at Ford remained constrained even though some OEMs like Toyota were expected to push the pedal on promotional activity to regain some of the market share lost due to product unavailability." Other items include structural and material costs coming in lower than expectations, with South American production expected to come in just shy of original views.

The firm expects earnings of 49 cents per share from Ford.

On the call, investors will also want more color on reinstatement of its quarterly dividend.

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out Ford's past performance at Streetinsider's Ford Income Statement.


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