Q3 Preview: JPMorgan (JPM) Might Beat Lowered Expectations, But Trading Losses Linger

October 12, 2011 3:01 PM EDT
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Price: $351.58 +0.01%

Rating Summary:
    22 Buy, 25 Hold, 1 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Shares of JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) are trading higher ahead of it's third-quarter results, expected out Thursday before the market opens. JPMorgan traditionally kicks-off earnings season for the financials, generally reporting a day or two after Alcoa (NYSE: AA).

The bank is expected to report earnings of 96 cents per share on revenue of $23.73 billion. Such earnings would be a 24.4 percent sequential dip, and 5 percent drop from the $1.01 in the same period last year. JPMorgan has traded within a range of $27.85 to $48.36 over the last 52-week period.

Shares of JPMorgan plummeted during the quarter, dropping 28 percent to $29.86 at the end of September. The stock is 12 percent better since then, but still down 22 percent on the year.

JPMorgan currently trades at 6.3x fiscal 2012 expectations, compared with 6.1x for Citi (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), and 8.2x at Wells Fargo. JPMorgan is about 25 percent below its book value of $44.80 per share.

Data from Bloomberg has 34 analysts with a Buy rating, four at Hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The Street's price target average is $48.50, with a low of $35 and high of $60.

Around the Street:
Wells Fargo is looking for JPMorgan to report GAAP earnings of 97 cents. Commenting into the quarter, "We believe that Q3’s results face a more difficult environment in most investment banking businesses (similar to its peer UCMBs). We also expect JPM will face continued mortgage-related litigation costs in Q3 – though we are modeling $500MM, down from the $1.2B taken in Q2. We anticipate some weakness in net interest margin and modest loan growth will reduce net interest income by 3% Q3/Q2. Finally we expect mortgage banking revenue of $1.1B will dip modestly from the healthy Q2 performance."

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out JPMorgan's past performance at Streetinsider's JPMorgan Income Statement.


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