Bullish Analyst Cuts Targets Amid 'Hard Landing for Rare Earth Prices' (AVL) (MCP) (REE)

October 11, 2011 9:50 AM EDT
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Stocks in the Rare Earth group have been volatile Tuesday morning as one of the few analyst firms which cover the sector took a cautious stance in an earlier research note.

Dahlman Rose, in a report entitled "Analyzing A Hard Landing for Rare Earth Prices," said while the firm remains optimistic over the long-term, it is cutting estimates for rare earth prices "to what we view to be the marginal cost of production..."

The firm now sees long-term prices for lanthanum and cerium at an average price of $12/kg, down sharply from a prior estimate of $30/kg. Dahlman is comfortable with its estimates for dysprosium and europium prices; the firm actually boosted its forecast for these metals.

Despite "compelling value in many of the equities" in the group, Dahlman Rose lowered price targets across the board:
  • Avalon Rare Metals (NYSE: REE) from $15 to $8;
  • Molycorp (NYSE: MCP) from $120 to $70, and
  • Rare Element Resources (NYSE: RE)) from $21 to $9.
The firm reiterated Buy ratings on Avalon, Molycorp and Rare Element Resources.


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