Jefferies Says Apple (AAPL) iPad Cuts Offset by iPhone Strength, Lifts Numbers

September 28, 2011 8:18 AM EDT
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Jefferies raised estimates on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), saying recent iPad cuts will be more than offset by iPhone strength.

The firm raised Q4 EPS estimates from $7.06 to $7.11, versus the consensus of $7.04. The firm raised FY11 EPS from $27.69 to $27.74, versus the consensus of $27.67. They raised FY12 EPS form $30.96 to $31.57, versus the consensus of $32.58.

Analyst Peter Misek notes that they have iPad 2 build plans have been scaled back but that iPhone production and demand remains strong. CQ3 iPad estimate wre cut from 13.6M to 12M and CQ4 from 18.8M to 17M but they raise their CQ3 iPhone
estimate by 500K to 19.4M and CQ4 by 3M to 28.7M

On the iPad produciton cuts the firm noted that: 1) iPad 2 HD was canceled (~1M units retooled); 2) Sooner-than-expected iPad 3 launch in late Jan; 3) Retail inventory caution due to potential demand slowdown; 4) Some production shift to Brazil. We see 29M iPads shipped in H2 vs. 14M in H1. We trim our 2011 global tablet forecast from 70M to 65M.

On the October 4 iPhone press event, which was announced yesterday, the firm said they expect the focus on iOS 5 and its cloud service capabilities. They also expect the announcement of an iPhone 5.

Misek expects the iPhone 5 will have an A5 processor (the same as the iPad 2), a better camera, a slightly larger screen, and be slightly slimmer.

He also expects the announcement of a lower-priced iPhone that will basically be a lower-cost 3GS. In addition, he expects carriers, including Sprint (NYSE: S) for the first time, to launch the phone starting in mid-Oct and expects an iPhone launch at China Teleco in CQ1.

The firm reiterated their Buy rating and $500 price target.

For more ratings news on Apple click here and for the rating history of Apple click here.

Shares of Apple closed at $399.26 yesterday.


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