Barclays Maintains an 'Overweight' on Carnival Corp (CCL); Risk Adjusting Estimates and Valuation

August 19, 2011 1:47 PM EDT
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Price: $25.73 +1.42%

Rating Summary:
    27 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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Barclays maintains an 'Overweight' on Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), lowers price target from $47 to $44.

Barclays analyst says, "We are lowering our estimates for Carnival to reflect the risk of continued weakness in the Mediterranean market in 2012 if the disruption in the Middle East and North Africa continues. Recall, we recently made similar changes to our Royal Carribean (NYSE: RCL) estimates following the company's 2Q release and net yield guidance reduction due to Eastern Med weakness. Our new estimate also reflects the sale of a Costa ship in 3Q11 ($0.02 to EPS)."

"For 2011, we maintain our current dollar net yield assumption of 4.5%, which likely captures the current challenges in the Med, in our view. Our estimate reflects the midpoint of Carnival's 6/21 guidance range of 4%-5%. For 2012, we lower our current dollar net yield estimate to 3% from 5% (or +1% in constant dollars) on concerns that ongoing conflicts in the MENA region could result in continued anemic demand for Eastern Med cruises. As a result, our 2012 EPS goes to $2.94 from $3.15."

For more ratings news on Carnival Corporation click here and for the rating history of Carnival Corporation click here.

Shares of Carnival Corporation closed at $30.03 yesterday.


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