Jefferies Cuts PT on Autodesk (ADSK) to $40, Keeps Buy Rating; Makes Move on FY13 Macro Concerns

August 19, 2011 9:33 AM EDT
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Price: $253.83 +1.12%

Rating Summary:
    36 Buy, 9 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: Down Down

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 6 | New: 26
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Jefferies cut its price target on Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) from $44 to $40, but keeps a Buy rating on teh shares.

Following Autodesk's second-quarter earnings victory and third-quarter outlook yesterday, Jefferies notes that Autodesk management "has seen no change to demand thus far, but we sense is ready to act if need be. We continue to like the suite strategy which we think can help drive higher growth and margins medium term."

Operating margins were about 200 basis points better than expected, resulting from revenue upside and lower operating expenses. Maintenance revenue growth of 11 percent was the best in 10 quarters, and total billings grew 24 percent from the same period last year.

Following third-quarter guidance, Jefferies said, "we expect Suites to continue to have a meaningfully impact on growth rate next year as higher subscription kicks in."

Reasoning behind the price target cut in contrast to positive comments is Jefferies simply taking a more conservative stance on fiscal 2013 growth given macro concerns.

Fourth quarter EPS estimate moves from 49 to 46 cents, while first-quarter 2013 EPS goes from 48 to 46 cents and fiscal 2013 EPS is cut from $2.04 to $1.95.

Click here for more analyst color, or here for a ratings history.

Autodesk is trading modestly higher early Friday.


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