FBR Capital on Real Estate/Multifamily REITs: The 2Q11 MSA Monitor: Did a Shoe Just Drop?
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Price: $107.59 -0.31%
Rating Summary:
16 Buy, 17 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
16 Buy, 17 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend:
Down
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
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FBR Capital on Real Estate/Multifamily REITs: The 2Q11 MSA Monitor: Did a Shoe Just Drop?
FBR analyst said, "Based on current forecasts and 1Q11 data, we conclude that Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT)(Underperform), MAA (NYSE: MAA)(Market Perform), and Colonial Properties Trust (NYSE: CLP)(Outperform) could have the strongest 12-month-forward multifamily operating backdrop. Associated Estates Realty (NYSE: AEC)(Outperform), AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB)(Outperform), and Home Properties (NYSE: HME)(Outperform) could have the weakest. Basically, very little has changed since our last screen. The updated results suggest continued strength in Sunbelt markets driven by favorable demographics—e.g., continued above-average employment and population growth trajectories. Regional strength gains were seen in Texas, while declines were seen for the Mid-Atlantic. Modest improvements were seen in upstate N.Y., although take this with a grain of salt due to economic distortions."
"Did a shoe just drop? A few thoughts relative to the multifamily permit data that was released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau, indicating a year-over-year pop in permitting activity: while this is to be expected given the renewed strength of rental pricing power in recent periods, increased supply is a primary concern among multifamily investors. In the past, apartment recoveries are typically hampered by the rapid delivery of new supply, especially in the Southeast/Sunbelt MSAs. We have yet to see it in this screen, although we acknowledge that third-party data providers may be slow to model increases."
FBR analyst said, "Based on current forecasts and 1Q11 data, we conclude that Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT)(Underperform), MAA (NYSE: MAA)(Market Perform), and Colonial Properties Trust (NYSE: CLP)(Outperform) could have the strongest 12-month-forward multifamily operating backdrop. Associated Estates Realty (NYSE: AEC)(Outperform), AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB)(Outperform), and Home Properties (NYSE: HME)(Outperform) could have the weakest. Basically, very little has changed since our last screen. The updated results suggest continued strength in Sunbelt markets driven by favorable demographics—e.g., continued above-average employment and population growth trajectories. Regional strength gains were seen in Texas, while declines were seen for the Mid-Atlantic. Modest improvements were seen in upstate N.Y., although take this with a grain of salt due to economic distortions."
"Did a shoe just drop? A few thoughts relative to the multifamily permit data that was released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau, indicating a year-over-year pop in permitting activity: while this is to be expected given the renewed strength of rental pricing power in recent periods, increased supply is a primary concern among multifamily investors. In the past, apartment recoveries are typically hampered by the rapid delivery of new supply, especially in the Southeast/Sunbelt MSAs. We have yet to see it in this screen, although we acknowledge that third-party data providers may be slow to model increases."
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