FBR Capital on Financial Institutions - Intererchange: Clear Skies Ahead? Durbin Decided, Final Fed Rule Coming

June 9, 2011 7:36 AM EDT
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FBR Capital on Financial Institutions: Financial Policy - Intererchange: Clear Skies Ahead? Durbin Decided, Final Fed Rule Coming

FBR analyst said, "With the Tester bill defeated, we believe the resultant sell-off of Visa (NYSE: V)(Outperform) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA)(Outperform) represents a buying opportunity, given our belief that the final Fed rules, which should be issued in the next two weeks, will be in line, and potentially slightly less onerous, than the initial draft. Specifically, we believe the upper end of the interchange fee cap could be increased to $0.20 from the proposed $0.12, and with respect to the elimination of exclusivity, we expect alternative A (multiple networks only for PIN transactions) to be chosen. As for banks, the defeat of Tester and resultant implementation of interchange fee caps is just one of a litany of headwinds facing the sector, and therefore does not change our EPS estimates or investment outlook. We have included an updated table ranking the banks in our coverage universe that derive the greatest percentage of revenue from interchange—TCF Financial (NYSE: TCB)(Market Perform), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF)(Market Perform), and People's United Financial (Nasdaq: PBCT)(Market Perform)."


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