Barclays on Gaming: 1Q11 Earnings Preview - Upside Surprises So Far, But Next Two Weeks Could Be Mixed

April 26, 2011 1:55 PM EDT
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Barclays on Gaming: 1Q11 Earnings Preview

Barclays analyst says, "1Q11 gaming earnings season got off to a strong start with Wynn (Nasdaq: WYNN), Penn National (NYSE: PENN) and Int'l Game Tech (NYSE: IGT) all reporting upside surprises. The next group of companies to report over the next two weeks could bring more mixed results. We are lowering our MGM (NYSE: MGM) EBITDA estimates to below consensus as we believe the company likely suffered from low baccarat hold and lower gaming volumes on the Las Vegas Strip (though weakness in Las Vegas appears to have been partially offset by upside from MGM Macau). Boyd could also potentially miss our and consensus estimates due to choppiness in the Las Vegas Locals market and high fuel costs which are likely weighing on the Downtown Las Vegas charter airline business. We believe Pinnacle (NYSE: PNK) will come-in with expectations as a better than expected March in St. Louis offset some weakness in Louisiana. Finally, we expect Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) to solidly beat expectations due to strong Macau results."

"We believe Pinnacle will report results in-line with consensus on April 28; Boyd (NYSE: BYD) reports earnings on May 3. We believe Boyd could miss consensus; We are raising our LVS estimates EBITDA estimates to a $795.2 million (up from $775.9 million and above consensus of $741.4 million) largely on stronger than expected Macau results; and We are lowering our MGM 1Q11 EBITDA estimate to $290.0 million (down from $310.0 million and versus consensus of $311.0 million) as we believe the company suffered from bad hold and lower gaming volumes on the Las Vegas Strip."


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