Barclays on PC Oil Roadmap - March 2011: Production Target Look Back
Tweet
Share
E-mailGet Alerts HES Hot Sheet
Price: $148.97 --0%
Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 21 Hold, 0 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Rating Summary:
19 Buy, 21 Hold, 0 Sell
Rating Trend: = Flat
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 8 | Down: 5 | New: 26
Join SI Premium – FREE
Barclays on PC Oil Roadmap - March 2011: Production Target Look Back
Barclays analyst says, "Although many investors are eager to obtain production guidance from the companies, it is important to note that most companies' records have been disappointing with significant negative variances, particularly for their longer dated forecasts. In this report we show which companies have historically reported the biggest deviations between expected and actual production as well each company's production target revision pattern. In addition, since we think the companies' ability to meet their production guidance is closely linked with their project execution capability, we think this report will help to identify the companies that have shown the best improvement trend in their underlying operating performance. From this standpoint, we think Hess (NYSE: HES) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX have demonstrated the most improvement over the last couple years. We reiterate our Overweight ratings on these two companies and think their stocks have not fully reflected the sharp improvement in their underlying capability."
"We believe that the tendency for companies to revise down their production targets over time suggests that most long-dated forecasts are unreliable. For example, Exxon (NYSE: XOM), Murphy (NYSE: MUR) and Marathon (NYSE: MRO) showed an average revision of -10%, -9% and -9%, respectively. In contrast, HES revised its forecast up 7% over the same period."
Barclays analyst says, "Although many investors are eager to obtain production guidance from the companies, it is important to note that most companies' records have been disappointing with significant negative variances, particularly for their longer dated forecasts. In this report we show which companies have historically reported the biggest deviations between expected and actual production as well each company's production target revision pattern. In addition, since we think the companies' ability to meet their production guidance is closely linked with their project execution capability, we think this report will help to identify the companies that have shown the best improvement trend in their underlying operating performance. From this standpoint, we think Hess (NYSE: HES) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX have demonstrated the most improvement over the last couple years. We reiterate our Overweight ratings on these two companies and think their stocks have not fully reflected the sharp improvement in their underlying capability."
"We believe that the tendency for companies to revise down their production targets over time suggests that most long-dated forecasts are unreliable. For example, Exxon (NYSE: XOM), Murphy (NYSE: MUR) and Marathon (NYSE: MRO) showed an average revision of -10%, -9% and -9%, respectively. In contrast, HES revised its forecast up 7% over the same period."
Serious News for Serious Traders! Try StreetInsider.com Premium Free!
You May Also Be Interested In
- Viking Holdings (VIK) PT Raised to $82 at Mizuho
- Benchmark Reiterates Buy Rating on NVIDIA (NVDA), Updates Estimates
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) PT Lowered to $48 at DA Davidson Following 25% Selloff Post Q2 Results
Create E-mail Alert Related Categories
Analyst CommentsRelated Entities
BarclaysSign up for StreetInsider Free!
Receive full access to all new and archived articles, unlimited portfolio tracking, e-mail alerts, custom newswires and RSS feeds - and more!
