Macquarie Raises Price Target, Estimates on Tibco (TIBX) Following Solid Q1 Earnings, Q2 Guidance

March 30, 2011 12:35 PM EDT
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Price: $24.03 --0%

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Macquarie Research maintained a Neutral rating on Tibco Sowftware (NASDAQ: TIBX) as shares are currently trading above its new price target of $24, up from $22.

The company reported its Q1 results with an EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $185 million.

The firm estimated EPS of $0.15 and sales of $181 million while the Street was at $0.15 and $182.68 million. TIBX's results came in ahead of its own guidance of $0.14-$0.15 and revenue of $178-$184 million.

The upside was largely due to a 29%+ year over year increase in its license revenue of $70 million. Operating margin also increase 2.3% to 21.9% while operating cash flow of $36.4 million was shy of its guidance of $40-$45 million. Macquarie comments the miss was due to weaker-than-expected deferred revenue growth.

TIBX released its Q2 guidance with a revenue range of $195-$200 million and an EPS range of $0.17-$0.18, which is inline with the consensus of $195 million in revenue and an EPS of $0.18.

The company is expecting that it’s licensing revenue to be $72-$76 million. The midpoint of operating cash flow guidance for F2Q implies 8% growth in 1H despite the benefit of 3 acquisitions totaling $58.5M since 1H10.

To go inline with the company's guidance, Macquarie is raising its Q2 revenue estimate from $194.5 million to $198 million, while maintaining its EPS estimate of $0.18. The firm's FY11 estimates are $863 million in revenue and $0.89 in EPS.


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