Collins Stewart Starts Dendreon (DNDN) at Buy; Diligence Suggests Robust Demand and Positive NCD for Provenge

March 28, 2011 4:23 PM EDT
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Price: $0.13 --0%

Rating Summary:
    2 Buy, 15 Hold, 9 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 13 | Down: 9 | New: 24
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Collins Stewart initiates coverage on Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) with a Buy. PT $55.

Collins analyst says, "We believe DNDN is emerging as a leading mid-cap biotech company given the blockbuster potential of its first-in-class immunotherapy, Provenge, for the treatment of castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Based on feedback from CMS consultants, we believe draft guidance for the Provenge CMS NCD on March 30 should fall in-line with the label and remove a near-term overhang. In addition, DNDN should increase Provenge manufacturing capacity 10-fold in 2011 to offset robust patient/physician demand (at least 1-2 patients/month conservatively per our diligence, which is in-line with guidance). As a result, we estimate Provenge FY11 revenue of $371.4M (vs. Street consensus of ~$370.5M and DNDN guidance of $350M-$400M), with possible upside."

"Given E.U. approval is likely in mid-2013, we believe Provenge WW peak sales of Provenge could be $3.1B+ in 2020, with Provenge approval in castrate-sensitive prostrate cancer and the remainder of the pipeline representing a free-call option."

For more ratings news on Dendreon click here and for the rating history of Dendreon click here.

Shares of Dendreon closed at $32.95 yesterday.


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