FBR Capital Maintains an 'Outperform' on Finish Line (FINL); 4Q In-Line, QTD Trends Robust Against Comparisons; Capital Allocation in Focus

March 28, 2011 3:22 PM EDT
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Price: $13.51 --0%

Rating Summary:
    3 Buy, 22 Hold, 2 Sell

Rating Trend: = Flat

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 8 | Down: 11 | New: 19
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FBR Capital maintains an 'Outperform' on Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL), raises PT from $20 to $23.

FBR analyst says, "We remain positive on shares of FINL and are raising our price target following the company's 4Q report. EPS for 4Q were in line; solid comp upside in the quarter was muted by more modest margin expansion than we forecasted, as promotional activity concentrated in the toning category (toning sales are down 45%) negatively affected otherwise stellar trends. Trends appear to have accelerated into 1Q, with a quarter-to-date comp of +10% -- impressive, as this was against +15% last year (+18.5% in March, the most difficult comparison of the year), while compares ease going forward (and will be aided by calendar shift)."

"With trends reaccelerating in 1Q, we have increased our comp estimate (to +7%, up from –1%), which coupled with a slightly lower operating margin (now 8.0%, down from 8.4%), translates to EPS of $0.28, up from $0.27. We have tweaked the remaining quarters, as well, to reflect comp momentum (+4.7% for the year) and resulting operating leverage, incremental SG&A, and share buybacks, netting to a new FY11 EPS estimate of $1.48 (was $1.40). We are introducing our FY12 EPS estimate of $1.64, which assumes a 2.5% comp increase and an operating margin of 10.1% (+40 bps YOY)."

For more ratings news on Finish Line click here and for the rating history of Finish Line click here.

Shares of Finish Line closed at $19.13 yesterday.


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