Goldman Sees 39% YoY Rise in Ford's (F) Sept. Auto Sales; Expects Total US Light Vehicle Sales at 11.7M Units

September 27, 2010 9:55 AM EDT
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting US light vehicle sales of 11.7 million units (on a seasonally adjusted annual rate) for September, a 28% rise over the 9.4 million units reported during the same month last year. The firm sees total car sales at 5.8 million units and total light truck sales very modestly higher at 5.9 million units.

Although Goldman notes that year-over-year comparisons are "less meaningful" due to last year's "Cash for Clunkers" program, the firm sees a rather momentous trend continuing. Goldman believes that this month's sales got off to a relatively strong start following a prolonged Labor Day weekend.

Goldman sees Ford (NYSE: F) reporting a 39% year-over-year increase in units during September, up to 152,100 vehicles. Based on this level of auto sales, Ford's market share would be around 15.9%, up modestly from the 15.8% reported last month and up from the 14.7% reported during the same period last year. Goldman believes Ford "continues to benefit from improving US truck sales and the continued strength of its product cycle." Additionally, Goldman warned that Ford sales could "see some headwind from Toyota regaining some of its lost ground from recall issues in the first half."

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and $16 price target on Ford shares.

About a half-hour into this morning's trading session, shares of Ford are down about 0.2% to $12.53. Goldman's price target suggests potential upside of more than 28% from where the stock is trading this morning.


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