Citi keeps Sell rating on Moderna after melanoma trial data, PT $80

Citi analyst Geoff Meacham reiterated a Sell rating and $80.00 price target on Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) after phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial data showed the company's intismeran combined with pembrolizumab reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% compared to pembrolizumab alone in adjuvant melanoma, with a hazard ratio of 0.58.

Moderna shares fell 25% intraday following the data release, which was confirmed by the European Society for Medical Oncology. The broader XBI index and S&P 500 each declined approximately 1% on the same day.

Meacham noted that while the trial results represent a clinically meaningful advance with consistent efficacy across lower- and higher-risk disease, market expectations had moved beyond a positive melanoma outcome. He said some investors had assigned value to an effective-cure narrative and anticipated success across additional solid tumors.

The analyst also pointed out that the 0.58 hazard ratio numerically mirrors the event-free survival hazard ratio achieved by moving pembrolizumab into the neoadjuvant setting, though he noted the studies are not directly comparable. Meacham raised questions about whether intismeran's benefit justifies individualized tumor harvesting and manufacturing compared to earlier use of widely available immunotherapy.

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