Chardan Starts Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD) at Buy

Chardan analyst Gautam Chukka initiates coverage on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: TVRD) with a Buy rating and a price target of $8.00.

The analyst comments "TVRD is a clinical stage biotech developing oral, direct STAT3 inhibitors, led by TTI-109 in ulcerative colitis (UC). STAT3 is where IL-6, IL-23 and other inflammatory signals converge, yet no direct STAT3 drug has been approved and the field is full of failures. Its first drug, TTI-101, missed in IPF as GI side effects drove patients off drug. TTI-109, its prodrug, is built to fix that. Our Buy rests on one condition: Tvardi raising the $35-40M needed to start the UC trial. Current cash funds the 4Q26 HCC readout, but the 10-Q flags going-concern doubt. At ~$1 the stock is a ~$15M fully diluted market cap against ~$21M of estimated cash. Hence, we believe that the market is pricing a funding discount, not a verdict on the science. What the HV data says and doesn’t: Over 95% of TTI-109 converts to TTI-101 within 2 hours, and 500 mg matched TTI-101 exposure. At that dose, diarrhea lasted 0.47 vs 3.35 days, and no TTI-109 volunteer stopped for GI reasons (0/32 vs 1/8). Placebo-adjusted, blood Th17, Tfh and IgG+ memory B cells fell 54%, 34% and 71%, all STAT3-driven cells implicated in UC. Our view is, TTI-109 fixes TTI-101’s GI problem and shows early immune activity, which the UC trial can now test in patients. UC is the first shot on goal. STAT3 integrates the signals behind UC, Tvardi’s inhibitors improved colitis in three mouse models, and the planned trial adds pSTAT3 testing to find responders. The risks are real but testable: STAT3 also carries gut healing (IL-22) and braking (IL-10) signals, so efficacy and safety must coexist at one dose, tissue pSTAT3 fell in tofacitinib patients, whether or not they remitted, and the right dose and schedule are still to be set. The bar is meaningful remission in patients who have already failed advanced therapies. We see TTI-109's profile as achievable, but the trial, not the biology, has to prove it. HCC is the second, funded shot on goal. REVERT reads out across three cohorts in 4Q26, and the interim showed responses only in the atezo/bev combination cohort. To stand out, we believe that that cohort needs to clearly beat atezo/bev alone, which typically delivers 26-34% ORR. We believe that a clean result would help the UC raise. Where we could be wrong. The raise fails or comes at a punitive discount, leaving UC unstarted. Strong gut biology has not been enough before: izencitinib and anti-IL-13 worked in mouse colitis but missed in UC trials. HCC cohorts are small and single arm so even a positive readout needs a randomized trial, and the cash or partner to run it. Valuation and catalysts. We model ~$1.6B unadjusted WW peak sales across UC and HCC at ~20% PoS each, which we view as conservative given the financing overhang. Our DCF backs into a 0.5x risk-adjusted peak sales multiple and a ~$182M target market cap for an $8 PT. Catalysts: the UC financing, 4Q26 HCC topline and a UC IND in early 2027."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc click here. For more ratings news on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc click here.

Shares of Tvardi Therapeutics Inc closed at $0.97 yesterday.

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