Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) PT Raised to $29 at Citizens on Denifanstat Peak Sales Estimate

Citizens analyst Jonathan Wolleben raised the price target on Sagimet Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ: SGMT) to $29.00 (from $12.00) while maintaining a Market Outperform rating.

The analyst commented, "Ahead of the 52-week Phase 3 data from partner Ascletis coming at EADV, we are raising our POS and peak sales estimate for denifanstat, which could be the first innovative acne treatment in decades; we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and raise our risk-adjusted, DCF-derived price target to $29 from $12...We know the 52-week data will look good with Ascletis saying that all efficacy endpoints improved from the 12-week double-blind portion. The open-label nature of the extension will introduce some bias in the results, but the ability to simply dose an acne treatment safely for one year will be a meaningful differentiator for denifanstat. Given the similarities between Ascletis’ Chinese Phase 3 (same dose, population, endpoints) and SGMT’s Phase 3 (starting in 2H26) but with greater powering (800 patients with 2:1 randomization vs. 480 patients 1:1 randomization), we raise our POS for denifanstat to 85% (from 75%)."

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