Canaan Inc. (CAN) PT Lowered to $1.50 at H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analyst Kevin Dede lowered the price target on Canaan Inc. (NASDAQ: CAN) to $1.50 (from $3.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "Canaan posted its strongest revenue quarter in four years, delivering $196.3M in 4Q25, driven by record volume shipped to a single large North American customer, and up 30% QoQ over 3Q25's $150.5M while besting our estimate of $156.4M. Specifically, 50,000 A15 Pros, or roughly 10.9Eh/s and 75% of the quarter's sold hash, shipped in building Canaan's 14.6Eh/s total 4Q25 volume at an $11.3Th/s ASP, down modestly from $11.9Th/s. One last point on the quarter's performance regarding Canaan's bitcoin self-mining: it was flattish with 3Q25 at $30.4M—find more on the Sept quarter in the Nov. 19 note here. But the real sticking point in yesterday's report is the full-year 2026 prognosis. Perhaps the first shoe to drop was management's 1Q26 guidance of $60–70M, where on one hand Canaan is certainly more skilled in reading the bitcoin rig tea leaves and passing on the perspective to the Street, but on the other, the guide suggests a 67% sequential decline to the mid-point. But that offer is just the initial three months of a year that is facing a list of issues, including: (1) the lowest hashprice in the history of bitcoin mining in the $0.03 range; (2) major business model migration of the larger North American publicly-traded bitcoin miners to HPC potentially flooding the mining rig second-hand market where weakness there eventually translates to overall market weakness; and (3) the launch of Bitmain's S23 series with comparatively high efficiency measure of 11j/Th versus the A15 Pro's 16.5j/Th. Rest assured that Canaan is not sitting down and taking a licking, but instead fighting the fight we have come to know and respect. The newest industrial Avalon miner, the A16 is nearing mass production post the Lunar New Year next week, and reportedly runs in the 13j/Th range, more closely matching Bitmain's newest, and it is this competitiveness that strengthens our investment resolve, among other points we highlight later. Despite the challenging backdrop for Canaan’s revenue outlook, we are maintaining our Buy rating but with a lower $1.50 price target reflecting a more subdued 2026 forecast itself influenced by share issuance."

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