Lucid Capital Markets Upgrades Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD) to Buy

Lucid Capital Markets analyst Christopher Liu upgraded Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: TVRD) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $6.00.

The analyst comments "At current share price levels, we believe that Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) is undervalued, as our model suggests that TTI-101 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and TTI-109 (included as pipeline value) could be worth $6/share. Currently, shares are trading near cash value (~ $3.88/share). As such, we increase our rating to BUY (from NEUTRAL) based on valuation and the potential for these assets to inflect the TVRD story with key readouts this year and potentially next year. For TTI-101 in HCC, we expect top-line data in 1H26. For TTI-109, we expect to see healthy volunteer data in 1H26 as well. We believe that these will be important catalysts for shares, as investors could see the company move away from a “show me” story and into execution mode if either of these assets generate positive signals within the datasets. We note that the bar for TTI-101 is low in pretreated HCC and that the treatment discontinuation rate thus far in this indication has been <4%. Furthermore, prior clinical data from TTI-101 suggest that there is biological activity for STAT3 inhibition, so we are cautiously interested in TTI-109 in key I&I indications if it can successfully alleviate the diarrhea adverse events (AEs). We also highlight that the company currently has runway through 4Q26 and may need term financing. In our model, we estimate ~$300mn peak sales for 3L+ HCC ($4/ share at 25% probability of success). This does not include the potential to move into earlier lines of therapy. We attribute $2/share for the pipeline, which includes TTI-109."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc click here. For more ratings news on Tvardi Therapeutics Inc click here.

Shares of Tvardi Therapeutics Inc closed at $3.95 yesterday.

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