Comcast Corp (CMCSA) PT Lowered to $28 at BNP Paribas Exane

BNP Paribas Exane analyst Sam McHugh lowered the price target on Comcast Corp (NASDAQ: CMCSA) to $28.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "What's changed? CHTR didn't raise broadband rates in 1Q, CMCSA/OPTU more aggressive Cable has become more aggressive following their commentary around fiber being promotional in 4Q25. Comcast is discounting heavily around the Winter Olympics, while it appears Charter did not raise broadband prices in 1Q26 ($3 in 1Q25 and $2 in 3Q25), raising TV prices only, while Optimum is advertising 3-4 months of free services. It appears cable is feeling incremental pressure - understandable given FWA/Fiber reached new heights last quarter. Updated estimates: we cut our cable ARPU growth estimates and CHTR TP down to $160 Having announced a decision to defer price increases in early '26, we had previously assumed they would raise rates in July - this is no longer our base case, and we reduce our Comcast ARPU growth in 2026 from -0.6% to -2.2%. CHTR is most exposed to deteriorating net-adds, and we now assume Charter only raises rates once in '26 (mid-year), so we cut our '26 broadband ARPU assumptions and now expect an -2.2% decline in '26 vs consensus of 2.3% growth. We anticipate a cautious message on near term EBITDA at Charter (BNPPE -2.2% EBITDA decline in '26 and we expect 1Q26 EBITDA declines to deteriorate vs 4Q25, vs consensus expecting improved declines). The Comcast (PT down to $28) and CHTR pair trade is popular and there is some risk that... ...Comcast could disappoint bulls on messaging around an NBCU spin, which could reverse recent performance, but hope may linger long given the prospect of PSKY turning to NBCU if they fail to acquire WBD. We remain more sceptical of a deal there with both parties likely wanting control, and CMCSA hesitant on JV's (post Hulu), but this and de-risked ST numbers leave us Neutral."

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