Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) PT Raised to $42 at B.Riley

B.Riley analyst Mayank Mamtani raised the price target on Centessa Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CNTA) to $42.00 (from $33.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "We are raising our price target, from $33 to $42, for buy-rated CNTA following Ph2 CRYSTAL-1 data deep dive that we believe positions ORX750 as significantly de-risked for potential first-in-class status in NT2 and IH, and best-in-class in NT1. Notably, ORX750 achieved >20 min placebo-adjusted MWT improvement at just 1.5mg matching TAK-861 (~20 min) and ALKS' alixorexton (22-26 min at 4-8mg) at 5-15x lower doses. Cataplexy reduction (87%) and ESS normalization were robust at this initial low dose level. ORX750 demonstrated only ~5% visual disturbance incidence vs. ALKS' alixo dose-dependent escalation to ~29% at 8mg (11/5 note). Separately, ALKS' Vibrance-2 Ph2 NT2 trial underwhelming results were marked by lack of dose-response and efficacy deterioration relative to Ph1 NT2 dataset (11/12 note). In contrast, ORX750's 4mg cohort achieved >10 min placebo-adjusted MWT (p=0.0193), the first-ever statistically significant multi-day data in NT2 for any OX2R agonist, positioning for potential first-in-class status. ESS improvement (7.8 pts pbo-adjusted) more than doubled ALKS' best result at a 4.5x lower dose. For IH, CNTA established a first-in-class position with statistically significant MWT improvement at 2mg, the first demonstration that OX2R agonism benefits this orexin-normal population. Neither ALKS nor TAK has disclosed IH efficacy data, giving CNTA potentially a multi-quarter/year lead in possibly initiating a Ph3 program. ALKS holds a modest timeline lead in NT2 but Vibrance-2 efficacy questions muddies the speed/scope of next registration-enabling program notably if additional split-dosing work is required for alixo. Takeda's next-gen TAK-360 also trails CNTA by at least 6 months. CNTA's basket design positions for accelerated registration timeline despite later IND initiation, with single-molecule efficiency being pursued for all three indications. Lastly, we note for ALKS-AVDL $2.1bn. merger further validating of the significant OX2R sleep franchise opportunity and could further fuel Takeda's ongoing market development efforts in anticipation of initial market launch in CY26E."

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