Eli Lilly (LLY) PT Raised at Bernstein on 'An Incredibly Rich Catalyst Path Ahead'

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Courtney Breen raised the price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to $1,300.00 (from $1,100.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The analyst commented: "Weighing in at $1T, what comes next? With this note, we update our outlook on LLY, raising our PT to reflect the catalyst path & earnings upside over the next 24+mo driven by Orforglipron launch, Trump GLP1 deal & ex-US expansion. We also provide a detailed script-based model for investors to scope and quantify the market impact of the new Trump administration GLP-1 deal. Using this model (GLP-1 Prescription Model), we update our view on the market expansion dynamics in each Medicare, Medicaid, Commerical & Cash-pay channels on a quarterly basis for the next 24mo and annually out to 2030.

For a number of months we’ve been saying that we will get through the most intense pressures for Lilly and then this stock becomes a beat-and-raise Orfo launch story. Now is that time. There is an incredibly rich catalyst path ahead (Exhibit 2), however the most meaningful stock moves will be tied to script trends and revenue realization in 2026. We see an easy beat to consensus expectations for Orforglipron, with our conservative ‘26 estimates of $1.8B (80k scripts per week in oral market + US only) far outpacing the current consensus of $550m. We reiterate our early view on the Whitehouse-GLP1 deal. This is a good deal for Lilly (even more so than Novo - due to launch timing & market share) & the nuances (timing of price cuts, guaranteed expansion & stabilization of price compression) make it even more positive than first glance (Exhibit 6). We’ve now fully reflected this deal in our revenue estimates - with increases to Orfo revenues, adaptations to Zepbound & Mounjaro pricing & ex-US Mounjaro trajectory."

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