Agios Pharma (AGIO) PT Lowered to $32 at BofA Securities

BofA Securities analyst Greg Harrison lowered the price target on Agios Pharma (NASDAQ: AGIO) to $32.00 (from $54.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "Agios shares are down meaningfully (-49%, NBI: -1.15%) after announcing topline results for the phase 3 RISE UP study of mitapivat in SCD, the larger of the two binaries expected before YE25e (the other being Dec 7th PDUFA in thalassemia). Though hitting on Hb response, mitapivat showed only modest directional benefit on both SCPC (other primary endpoint) and fatigue (key secondary endpoint). While management has highlighted that hitting either primary endpoint would be sufficient for approval (and indeed plans to approach FDA for a pre-sNDA meeting in 1Q26e), we see an uncertain regulatory and commercial path forward. Oxbryta also initially showed improved Hb and was directionally positive on SCPC in phase 3, but was later removed from the market due to imbalance in VOCs and fatal events (see our take on the withdrawal here). We highlight where mitapivat falls in the treatment landscape in (see Exhibit 1 on page 4). We reiterate our Buy rating but lower our PO to $32 (from $54) as we reduce peak share to 7% and probability success to 30% in SCD. We also redistribute OpEx in our model."

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