Redwire (RDW) PT Lowered to $11 at Canaccord Genuity

Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller lowered the price target on Redwire (NYSE: RDW) to $11.00 (from $17.50) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "Redwire (RDW) announced Q3/25 results, reporting ~$103M in revenue (up ~51% y/y) and Adj. EBITDA loss of ($2.6M), reflecting a 205% y/y decline. The top and bottom-line results missed our estimates by 37% and 134%, respectively. Redwire revenue and Adj. EBITDA also trailed consensus estimates by 20% and 189%. Y/Y top-line growth of 51% mainly reflected inorganic revs from the Edge Autonomy acquisition, which comprised $49.5M (48% of total) in Q3/25 revenue. Edge’s revenue contribution during the quarter implies legacy Redwire produced $54M in Q3 sales (down 21% y/y organically). Sales lagged expectations partially from an unfavorable $8.9M EAC adjustment, following the partial shutdown of the RF system production line last quarter. This dynamic resulted in lower production volumes which led to an adverse $8.3M Net EAC impact to gross profit, dragging gross margin 613 bps lower (to 16.3%) despite 40% better gross profit y/y due to the Edge acquisition. Opex declined 20% sequentially, reflecting an ~8% q/q reduction in SG&A and a 96% sequential decline in transaction expenses following the closure of the Edge deal. Redwire additionally burned ~$28M in FCF and ended Q3 with $89.3M in liquidity."

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