Bernstein SocGen Group Reiterates Outperform Rating on Netflix (NFLX), 'Key takeaways from 3Q25 streaming webinar'

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Laurent Yoon reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,390.00 price target on Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX).

The analyst commented: "We hosted a webinar with experts from Parrot Analytics to discuss the latest trends in streaming engagement, subscriber dynamics and content performance for 3Q25. Our discussion focused on the key drivers behind Netflix’s Q3 engagement rebound, subscriber trends, and early expectations for 4Q25 given the strong returning slate. Five key takeaways: Netflix engagement rebounded in 3Q25, driven almost entirely by K-Pop Demon Hunters. Netflix’s global engagement rose modestly QoQ, reversing the 2Q dip that came with a weaker content slate last quarter. The significant driver of the rebound was due to K-Pop Demon Hunters, which added roughly 500M viewing hours, with another ~400M expected in 4Q25. Without the impact of this breakout film, overall engagement would have been roughly flat. There are always big hits that meaningfully move the engagement needle, though one of this magnitude is atypical for Netflix (or any player). Total Netflix 2H engagement is projected to grow compared to 1H driven by a strong returning TV series slate in 4Q. 4Q’s returning slate can add meaningfully more incremental hours on top of the current engagement run rate, led by returning seasons of major franchises. Aggregating this with K-Pop Demon Hunter’s success in Q3, 2H could post a strong performance in total viewing hours. However, strong competitor slates and big sports seasons in Q4 pose a risk to this expectation. Returning TV series seasons are contributing more to subscriber retention and engagement. Netflix has more original content in TV shows compared to movies and strong contributions from returning seasons coupled with lower production costs for TV series have led Netflix to become less reliant on movies. However, engagement decline in later seasons could pose a longer-term risk for Netflix. Netflix’s net adds are estimated to be healthy this quarter at ~7M. Growth was strong in international regions, primarily in LATAM. Non-English content continues to be the driving force behind growth, and younger audience segments lead the growth this quarter. "

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Netflix click here. For more ratings news on Netflix click here.

Shares of Netflix closed at $1203.29 yesterday.

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