Citizens stays bullish on Ideaya ahead of ESMO update

Citizens analyst Silvan Tuerkcan reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $45.00 price target on Ideaya Biosciences (NASDAQ: IDYA).

The analyst commented, "We remain bullish on IDYA's upcoming ESMO update that can help investors to estimate the PoS of the neoadjuvant uveal melanoma opportunity. We currently only model $400M risk-adjusted sales for the neoadjuvant setting (42.5% PoS), which is ~1/2 of our total risk adjusted darovasertib sales estimate. For enucleation, based on our calculation and assuming 50 evaluable patients, a ≥22% eye preservation rate would clear the 10% lower bound of a 95CI (Ph3 endpoint) FDA bar. If IDYA's unprecedented 61% rate of eye preservation holds up, it should clear the bar by 2.7x. For the brachytherapy cohort, the data presented at ESMO will be in a different form from previous updates — but we are still focused on tumor volume reduction from baseline and vision preservation. For vision preservation, our benchmark is a 20% reduction in the proportion of patients that have lost ≥15 letters (BCVA) (compared to historical figures, which we believe is greater than 50%). If the median letters gained (not lost) remains at 5 (or any number of letters >0), the registrational hurdle should be easily achievable in our view."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Ideaya Biosciences click here. For more ratings news on Ideaya Biosciences click here.

Shares of Ideaya Biosciences closed at $27.49 yesterday.

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