Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) PT Raised to $30 at Raymond James

Raymond James analyst John Ransom raised the price target on Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ: ACHC) to $30.00 (from $26.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We are maintaining out Outperform rating and increasing our price target to $30 (~11% FCF yield or ~8x multiple) as we update our model post ACHC’s recent 8-k and comments at a competitor conference that the company plans to reduce capex by $300M next year (implies $300-350M in 2026) as the company rethinks its bed growth strategy in an effort to enhance FCF generation. Management’s comments on capex in the 8-k were not necessarily new as they have previously forecasted capex declining significantly in 2026, but this announcement puts hard numbers on it. Our new 2026 FCF estimate of $125M increases $95M from our old estimate of $30M. New news was that the company sees 3Q SS volume growth coming in at 1.3%, below our old model of 2.5%. As a result, our 3Q adj. EBITDA estimate is declining $6M to $174M. In summary - we think this update along with the recent activist involvement is a step in the right direction, but there’s likely more wood to chop on the overall strategy, store closures, asset sales, and board refinement."

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