Evercore ISI Starts Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at In Line

Evercore ISI analyst Stephen Richardson initiates coverage on Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) with a In Line rating and a price target of $170.00.

The analyst comments "Perennial Outperformer Looking for an Encore, Initiating at In Line, PT $170. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stands at the intersection of downstream cash flow generation and midstream capital efficiency. Its dual exposure to refining and MPLX’s stable, growing midstream platform has delivered sector-leading TSR and capital returns postSpeedway divestiture. With a streamlined asset base and ~$2.5 Bn (and growing) in annual MPLX distributions covering dividends and capex, MPC’s refining cash flow is essentially a levered equity call on margins, funding up to $3 Bn in annual buybacks (on our estimates). Recent outperformance (+700 bps vs peers YTD) reflects optimism on California margin durability and midstream re-rating. While we see upside from Mid-Con momentum and long-cycle optionality in California, these positives are reflected in current valuation. We initiate with an In Line rating, noting sustainable capital returns, robust cost execution, and structurally advantaged refining scale. With $9.5-13.6 EPS through 2027 and steady 7-10% FCF yields, MPC is a durable, high-return operator. However, absent a fresh catalyst or area of market focus, we expect relative returns to converge with peers as valuation normalizes."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Marathon Petroleum click here. For more ratings news on Marathon Petroleum click here.

Shares of Marathon Petroleum closed at $170.08 yesterday.

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