Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) PT Lowered to $54 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe lowered the price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) to $54.00 (from $58.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "Following last week’s group wide piece when we highlighted a recent meeting with Chipotle’s CFO- Adam Rymer, Head of IR & Strategy- Cindy Olsen and VP of Finance - Michael Johnston, investor interest in the topic encouraged a more complete review of both our meeting and model/valuation work. CMG has largely been left behind in this rally at down 17% YTD vs flat SPX and down 21% Y/Y vs up 11% SPX. Despite a positive bias partially driven by an expected return to positive comps in 3Q25 and positive SSS traffic in 4Q25, we remain a Neutral. The stock at $50 has modestly more upside to $60+ than downside to mid $40s but our renewed TAM analysis generates a $54 Dec-26 price target. This target also reflects a still-high 34x $1.58 C27 EPS within an expected slowing to a 30-35 multiple range but down from previous 40-45x as 8-10% annual unit growth deepens brand concentration in the US. An existing 20% of sales delivery business is particularly susceptible to cannibalization as new stores increasingly draft off an existing store’s delivery radius."

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