Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (AESI) PT Lowered to $14 at Citi

Citi analyst Scott Gruber lowered the price target on Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (NYSE: AESI) to $14.00 (from $18.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "AESI Update: We update our model for AESI’s updated guidance after the 1Q call. We’re updating our estimate for 2025 proppant sales to ~23mm tons (down from ~25mm tons, previously) as D&C activity slows. We also update our estimates for the logistics business and estimate margins gradually improve to the low-20% range throughout 2025, as fewer volumes than previously estimated go down the Dune Express. AESI is guiding to relatively flat adjusted EBITDA quarter over quarter; we forecast 2Q adjusted EBITDA of ~$76mm and $302mm for FY 2025. Recent (FactSet) consensus 2Q EBITDA estimates currently sit at ~$75mm, with FY 2025 EBITDA at ~$300mm. Against the greater backdrop of a bearish oil macro, we remain Neutral on AESI. We revise our price target down to $14/share. Using our sum-of-the-parts methodology, we assign a 3.5x 2026 EBITDA multiple to the sand production business, an 8x multiple to the logistics business and a 7x multiple to the new power business."

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