Helmerich & Payne (HP) PT Lowered to $25 at Citi

Citi analyst Scott Gruber lowered the price target on Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP) to $25.00 (from $32.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "HP Update: We update our HP model, lowering our F3Q EBITDA forecast by 7% to $232mm, in-line with consensus for those who have updated, on lower US rig count and international margin expectations. We lower our FY25 EBITDA forecast by 6% to $875mm, in-line with consensus, which reflects 145 active L48 rigs at an average daily margin of $18.8kpd and 71 average active international rigs across F3Q and F4Q at an average daily margin of $5kpd. We now forecast FY26 EBITDA at $821mm, below consensus at $880mm. Our FY25 FCF forecast now sits at $234mm, above consensus at $197m, and our FY26 FCF forecast sits at $211mm, below consensus at $385mm. We lower our target price to $25, utilizing a ~4.5x 2025E EV/EBITDA multiple which is below normal but reflects negative revision risk given lower crude prices."

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