Titan America (TTAM) PT Lowered to $15 at Bernstein SocGen Group

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Chad Dillard lowered the price target on Titan America (NYSE: TTAM) to $15.00 (from $17.00) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.

The analyst commented: "TTAM reported $390M in revenues and $0.21 in EPS in 4Q. Mgmt. also offered updated ‘25 guidance, expecting +MSD revenue growth and moderate Y/Y EBITDA margin gains vs. +10% revenue growth and ~180ps of margin improvement prior. As outlined in our initiation, we maintain that ‘25 expectations need to rationalize further. Until then, we stay on the sidelines.

Weather significantly impacted 4Q results. Mgmt. is expecting a similar trajectory for 1Q, but exposure helps soften the blow. Heavy rainfall in FL and colder temps in the MidAtlantic contributed to an estimated 2-3ppt headwind to cement volumes vs. expectations, and mgmt. expects a similar drag in 1Q. Though US cement consumption fell -6% in ‘24, Titan volumes only declined -3%. The outperformance was driven by its participation in Virginia’s data centers market, key infrastructure projects, pockets of warehouse and commercial strength, and parts of FL’s residential market. Moreover, the company cites a strong backlog of infrastructure projects in its key markets supportive of strong pent-up demand set to materialize as soon as 2Q."

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