Mural Oncology (MURA) PT Lowered to $6 at H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analyst Andres Maldonado lowered the price target on Mural Oncology (NASDAQ: MURA) to $6.00 (from $18.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "Following Mural’s announcement that the interim analysis of the Phase 3 ATRISTRY-7 study failed to show a statistically significant overall survival benefit over investigator’s choice chemotherapy in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC), the key investor focus for Nemvaleukin now shifts to the extent of read-through to the upcoming data in both mucosal and cutaneous melanoma. While we remain disappointed by the result, we also are hesitant to completely rule out a pathway forward for Nemvaleukin given the expected topline results from Phase 2 trial in mucosal melanoma (ARTISTRY-6, Cohort 2) are expected in 2Q25 coupled with update from mono and combination therapy (ARTISTRY-6 Cohorts 3/4) in cutaneous melanoma (2Q25 and 2H25). Furthermore, PROC is considerably less immunogenic—a much “colder” tumor—compared to both cutaneous and mucosal melanoma. Cutaneous melanoma, driven largely by UV-induced DNA damage, has a high tumor mutational burden (TMB), which leads to abundant neoantigen formation and strong immune recognition. It is also characterized by high infiltration of CD8+ T cells and robust responsiveness to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Mucosal melanoma, while less immunogenic than cutaneous, still demonstrates moderate TMB and some degree of immune infiltration, with response rates to checkpoint inhibitors in the 15–30% range. In contrast, PROC has low TMB, limited neoantigen availability, and often a highly immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment dominated by regulatory T cells and M2 macrophages. It also frequently exhibits downregulation of MHC class I expression, impairing antigen presentation and T-cell engagement. These features contribute to the historically poor responses to checkpoint inhibitors in PROC, with objective response rates typically in the single digits outside biomarker-selected subgroups. We reiterate our Buy rating and lower our PT to $6 from $18."

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