Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) PT Lowered to $37 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes lowered the price target on Acadia Healthcare (NASDAQ: ACHC) to $37.00 (from $48.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented: "We are lowing our price target to $37 from $48. ACHC updated its long-term outlook, targeting average annual revenue growth of +7-9%, and average adjusted EBITDA annual growth of +8-10%. This is a -200bps reduction in the revenue growth target, and a -300pbs reduction in the company's adjusted EBITDA growth target. We are lowering our 2025E-2026E adjusted EBITDA estimates, and introducing our 2027E estimates. Our price target is based on 7.5x our 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate, below the company's ten-year average and low-average of 11.5x and 9.2x, respectively. We do not believe ACHC can trade at its previous multiple until the company generates positive free cash flow. We view the reduction in the long-term guidance as positive given the prior outlook was predicated on what we viewed as aggressive growth plans. We believe the new outlook is prudent and removes a risk going forward."

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