Assertio Therapeutics (ASRT) PT Lowered to $3.50 at H.C. Wainwright

H.C. Wainwright analyst Raghuram Selvaraju lowered the price target on Assertio Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ASRT) to $3.50 (from $4.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "In a press release and conference call last week, Assertio Holdings reported its 4Q24 and full-year 2024 financial results. The company recorded full-year top-line revenue totaling ~$125M, slightly ahead of our original forecast for top-line revenue of $122.7M. However, management provided a top-line revenue guidance range of only $108-123M for 2025 vs. our original expectation for top-line revenue totaling $129.2M. While we acknowledge the fact that both 2024 and 2025 are likely to be years that show the effect of ongoing generic erosion of the INDOCIN franchise, we also note that the lukewarm 2025 top-line guidance may reflect the possibility that ROLVEDON sales might not ramp as rapidly as we might have hoped. Our full-year 2025 net revenue forecast currently stands at $120.8M, with product revenue totaling $118.8M. We expect total 2025 ROLVEDON sales to come in at approximately $63.9M vs. the $60.1M reported for 2024. The company recorded a full-year 2024 net loss of $0.23 vs. our original forecast for a net loss of only $0.15 per share. We currently project a full-year 2025 net loss of $0.19 vs. our previous forecast for a net loss of only $0.03 per share. In our view, Assertio may return to profitability in 2H26. Our full-year 2026 estimates have been instituted as follows: $135.6M in total top-line revenue and net earnings of $0.01 per share. We reiterate our Buy rating, while modulating our 12-month price target to $3.50 from the prior $4 per share. This reflects a more gradual revenue ramp for ROLVEDON, as well as a more rapid decline in total INDOCIN sales due to higher generic erosion and pricing pressure."

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