Macquarie Reiterates Neutral Rating on Full House Resorts (FLL)

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon reiterated a Neutral rating and $5.00 price target on Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL)

The analyst comments "Property EBITDA was 4% below cons, but company EBITDA of $10.4m (+42% YoY) was 14% above cons given non-recurring items. American Place temp continues to ramp with revs/EBITDA growing 27%/72% YoY. Following a positive ruling from IL courts, mgmt expects to start permanent construction in 2025 and expects to secure debt capital to fund the project with plans to open by Aug 2027 (~$300m cost). Based on other permanent casino openings in IL, mgmt believes its permanent will 2x current revs at American Place, while EBITDA could 3x (implies ~$90m of EBITDA). In the West, costs at Chamonix were elevated in 4Q relative to activity after the grand opening in November, partially attributable to weather, causing segment EBITDA to decline $3m YoY. Mgmt expects revs at the property to climb throughout the year with costs remaining stagnant, and recently hired experienced Colorado leadership to drive this. • We believe the long-term investment thesis is intact, but we expect the main driver of FLL shares in 2025 will be the pace at which Chamonix EBITDA ramps. Previously, the investment story was for FLL to generate property EBITDA approaching $100m (legacy $20-30m), Waukegan ($30-40m), and Chamonix ($20-30m); but, Chamonix expectations have declined and the legacy portfolio has not held margins. We now forecast 2025E EBITDA of $63m, from $69m, as we remain cautious on Chamonix ramp, but see this growing to $76/$89m in '26/27E. • FLL will be at our Consumer Conference March 18-19 in NYC."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Full House Resorts click here. For more ratings news on Full House Resorts click here.

Shares of Full House Resorts closed at $4.15 yesterday.

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