Tidewater Inc (TDW) PT Lowered to $68 at BTIG

BTIG analyst Gregory Lewis lowered the price target on Tidewater Inc (NYSE: TDW) to $68.00 (from $90.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented, "TDW reported Q4 earnings yesterday (AMC) with adjusted EBITDA coming in at ~$138M which was in line with consensus (~$139M). Revenue of ~$345M was also in line with consensus, bringing FY2024 revenue to ~$1.3B which was in the range of previous guidance. 4Q revenue was up ~1% sequentially due to a slight uptick in active global utilization of ~150bps. Global average charter rates for TDW's fleet stalled at $22k/d in 4Q24 after 7 consecutive quarters of gains in which rates are up ~65%. Average rates continued to increase in the Middle East and West Africa while rates were down in Americas and APAC (Europe/Med was more flat). We note global PSV rates have flatted (see: OSM Monthly). More importantly, management noted that a slow start to 2025 (think choppiness in utilization and lower rates) should see revenue, gross margins and free cash flow trend flat to slightly up Y-Y in 2025 with improvements in the back half of the year offsetting first half struggles (that will depend on the expected pick up in rig activity). Management guided to full-year 2025 revenue of $1.32B-$1.38B which comes in ~6% below consensus of ~$1.4B at the midpoint of guidance and points to revenue trending flat Y-Y. TDW gave full-year gross margin guidance of 48%-50% which is up ~100bps Y-Y at the midpoint. Bottom line: weaker global demand in 1H25 is expected to weigh on utilization which should weigh on pricing in the near-term. However, we expect activity to bottom over the next few quarters with a pick up in 2026."

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