Bernstein SocGen Group Reiterates Outperform Rating on Eli Lilly (LLY) Despite 'Disappointing' GLP-1 Miss

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Courtney Breen reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,100.00 price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY).

The analyst commented: "LLY Q4 GLP-1 miss disappointing, but long term leadership & TAM remains. This morning Eli Lilly announced 2024 revenue and 2025 guidance. Whilst this will hurt the stock today it doesn’t change our long term outlook. 2024 Revenue is expected to be $45B, $400m below the bottom-end of previous guidance of $45.4-46.6B. Importantly, Q4 GLP-1 revenue is expected to be approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound. This is -19% and -13% below consensus, respectively. Non-incretin revenue however was a beat, growing by 20% in Q4 vs last year, and an implied ~11% beat vs consensus. 2025 revenue guidance has also been issued with a guide of $58.0-$61.0B, with current consensus expectations for 2025 below the midpoint at $58.7B.

This announcement is not a huge surprise to us, many investors have expressed concern about the possibility of a miss in Q4 due to the less explosive prescription trends & we illustrated the potential gap/target growth rate since our post-Q3 note (Exhibit 2, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4). Today’s miss highlights the added level of channel dynamics to LLY’s earnings, and the continuing effects of the shortage - further demand will need to be stimulated by the company, but we have confidence that they will execute. Further, LLY’s GLP-1 growth rate exiting 2024 was far higher than Novo Nordisk’s, giving us confidence in their superiority."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Eli Lilly click here. For more ratings news on Eli Lilly click here.

Shares of Eli Lilly closed at $744.91 yesterday.

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