Canaccord Genuity Reiterates Buy Rating on TransMedics Group (TMDX)

Canaccord Genuity analyst Jason Mills reiterated a Buy rating and $104.00 price target on TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX).

The analyst commented: "TransMedics hosted its investor day meeting in New York City, where the company outlined both near-term and longer-term growth drivers, as well as gave some preliminary 2025 revenue guidance that resets expectations. To us, there were not many surprises, with the company previewing many of the topics discussed during our site visit that we hosted a few weeks ago, but added the guidance that was below 2025 expectations. As previously mentioned, the company is expecting its next growth inflection to begin in 2H/25, starting with its next-gen OCS Lung trial, and then followed thereafter by another OCS Heart trial. Both the Lung and Heart programs are bringing technology enhancements to its current OCS device that will allow for organ preservation to 24 hours (as already seen in OCS Liver) and bring daytime transportation to heart and lung — fueling the next leg of growth by enabling its technology to be more applicable in hearts and lungs that aren’t used today. The company also previewed digital platform updates that it will also launch in 2025 to improve financial and operational visibility for transplant programs, but also be a key tool
and partner when it comes to communication and organizational tracking. Long term, the company also highlighted its opportunity for TAM expansion via OCS Kidney and OUS NOP, plus the margin benefits of its next-generation platform. The company reiterated its 10,000-transplant goal for 2028 (and guided to $1.2B in revenue associated with that), and showed how it will grow beyond 10,000 organs in the long-term. More near term, though the company just announced a CFO change last week, TMDX gave some initial 2025 revenue commentary indicating that it is expecting Y/Y revenue growth of 20%-25% from the midpoint of 2024 guidance, implying revenue in the range of $516M-$538M, which was below consensus of $541M and our estimate of $535M heading into the investor day. We view the updated guidance as a deck-clearing event, allowing the company to enter 2025 with achievable expectations for the street. We have updated our near-term revenue expectations to the low end of guidance, lowering 2025 to $518M, but kept our 2028 revenue expectation of $967M (for now)."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on TransMedics Group click here. For more ratings news on TransMedics Group click here.

Shares of TransMedics Group closed at $68.99 yesterday.

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