Bridger Aerospace (BAER) PT Raised to $5.75 at Canaccord Genuity

Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller raised the price target on Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) to $5.75 (from $5.25) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented: "We are maintaining our BUY rating on BAER and raising our PT to $5.75. Given the extended 2024 wildfire season, with activity impacting unusual locations like Jennings Creek in NJ/NY and Prospect Park in Brooklyn, NY, our ability to fight against wildfire activity in population centers is becoming increasingly more important as warmer temperatures and drying of fuels becomes more prevalent throughout the year. As a result, Bridger Aerospace’s position in the global aerial firefighting responder network, as well as its fleet of Super Scoopers and PC-12s, are that much more valuable. The company additionally continues to integrate and benefit from FMS Aerospace, which should open the door for more federal contracting opportunities. Furthermore, the paid version of its Ignis mobile app is being deployed at the state and local level in advance of targeting larger federal firefighting contract solicitations. The company is also in negotiations with state budget appropriators, along with a major US government contractor prime, to expand utilization of the app with firefighters nationwide. We expect the software business to be accretive to the company’s gross and Adj. EBITDA margins over time. Our $5.75 PT is based on an 18.4x EV/EBITDA multiple, applied to our ’24 estimate of ~$37.5M. We view this valuation as appropriate, given the impressive revenue growth rate and FCF generation of BAER relative to SMID cap government contracting peers. We also assume dilution in our model from supplemental capital raises."

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