Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Misses Q3 EPS by 26c, provides guidance

Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ: SIGI) reported Q3 EPS of $1.40, $0.26 worse than the analyst estimate of $1.66. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.24 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.17 billion.

Guidance

For 2024, we increased our expected GAAP combined ratio to 102.5%. The change reflects the third quarter\'s elevated catastrophe losses, partially offset by better-than-expected non-catastrophe property losses. Full-year expectations are as follows:

A GAAP combined ratio of 102.5%, up 1 point from our prior guidance of 101.5%. Our combined ratio estimate includes net catastrophe losses of 7.5 points, up from prior guidance of 5.5 points. Although too early to provide a specific estimate, we expect losses from Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on October 9, 2024, to be immaterial. Our combined ratio estimate assumes no additional prior year casualty reserve development;
After-tax net investment income of $360 million that includes $32 million from alternative investments;
An overall effective tax rate of approximately 21.0%, which assumes an effective tax rate of 20.5% for net investment income and 21% for all other items; and
Weighted average shares of 61.5 million on a fully diluted basis.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) click here.

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