Arcadium Lithium PLC (ALTM) PT Lowered to $3 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst John Roberts lowered the price target on Arcadium Lithium PLC (NYSE: ALTM) to $3.00 (from $3.50) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented: "Inaugural investor day presents a scenario where net debt-to-EBITDA only rises to 2.1x in spite of negative cash flow through 2026. The lithium market will remain oversupplied through 2026 and is expected to be short again in 2027. ALTM expects to grow volume near 20% CAGR from 2024 through 2028, with no equity dilution.

PT reduced to $3.00 from $3.50. NTM+1 EBITDA (Q5-Q8: ending JunQ26) reduced to $510M from $800M to reflect lower pricing & suspension of Mt. Cattlin mine production. This is partly offset by target EV/EBITDA multiple increased to 8.5x from 5x, reflecting increased confidence in balance sheet & cyclically inverse relationship between multiples & earnings (i.e. trough multiple on peak earnings & vice versa)."

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