Morgan Stanley Calls Merck (MRK) a 'Catalyst Driven Idea' Ahead of March 6 Conference

Morgan Stanley analyst Terrance Flynn reiterated an Equalweight rating and $99.00 price target on Merck (NYSE: MRK)

The analyst comments "MRK will present data from two pipeline CV drugs at the ACC conference on Mar 6 - Sotatercept Ph3 PAH data and oral PCSK9 Ph2 data. We see six potential scenarios for these data presentations, but the magnitude of the stock moves could depend on the level of granularity provided in the presentation. • Scenario 1: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m and demonstrates a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (<45% from baseline), which is lower than injectable PCSK9 therapies and/or has a safety issue. We assign a 11% probability to this scenario. • Scenario 2: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m and demonstrates a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (~45-50% from baseline) in line with injectable PCSK9 therapies. We assign a 39% probability to this scenario. • Scenario 3: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m and demonstrates a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (>50% from baseline), which is better than injectable PCSK9 therapies. We assign a 6% probability to this scenario. • Scenario 4: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m but does not demonstrate a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (<45% from baseline), which is lower than injectable PCSK9 therapies and/or has a safety issue. We assign a 9% probability to this scenario. • Scenario 5: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m but does not demonstrate a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (~45- 50% from baseline) in line with injectable PCSK9 therapies. We assign a 32% probability to this scenario. • Scenario 6: Sotatercept 6MWD is >=20m but does not demonstrate a benefit on hospitalizations. MRK-0616 demonstrates LDL-C lowering (>50% from baseline), which is better than injectable PCSK9 therapies. We assign a 5% probability to this scenario."

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Shares of Merck closed at $108.57 yesterday.

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