UPDATE: Evercore ISI Upgrades BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) to Outperform

Evercore ISI analyst Liisa Bayko upgraded BioCryst Pharma (NASDAQ: BCRX) from In Line to Outperform with a price target of $16.00 (from $14.00).

The analyst comments "We are upgrading it to OP with a PT of $16. Our rationale is as follows… 1. Orladeyo long term prospects intact despite some short-term blips in numbers. 3Q revenue came in it at $66M, shy of consensus of $70M. Some of this was due to the timing of end of 2Q orders and one-time revenues which to some extent artificially inflated 2Q. We were not surprised, as our recent physician survey suggested just 5% in 3Q growth (actual was 9%) and we had been emphasizing low expectations. With a month of visibility into the final quarter of the year, management narrowed its guidance to the lower end of the prior range to $255M for 2022 or ~$75M for 4Q. We think this is doable based on our physician survey which suggests prescriptions to reaccelerate to >30% by the end of 4Q. Once patients settle on Orladeyo, the medicine is relatively sticky. About half of patients seem to adopt Orladeyo for the long term. Our recent survey suggests Orladeyo could reach 34% share of the prophylactic market. 2. Competitive field narrows supporting long term success of Orladeyo. Recent disappointments in the oral prophylactic landscape (KalVista terminated its oral kallikrein inhibitor, KVD824 and clinical hold for Pharvaris’ oral, PHVS416/PHVS719), highlight the difficulty in developing this class of agents and decreases the longer-term competitive threat for BCRX’s Orladeyo which management projects will reach blockbuster status. We are at ~$900M in the outer years. 3. Upside for oral factor D program. We do not include BCRX’s oral factor D program in our model yet as we wait on the go/no-go decision on ‘9930 coming in mid-2023. We like this conservative approach as we see upside in either case of moving the program forward (we would add it to our model) or discontinuing the effort (would lower expenses). Having said that, BCRX seems committed to their oral factor D program as they move another once-daily oral factor D inhibitor, BCX10013, into the clinic with data in healthy volunteers expected in 1Q23. Recent positive topline P3 data from NVS’s iptacopan (factor B inhibitor) provides read thru to this MOA."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on BioCryst Pharma click here. For more ratings news on BioCryst Pharma click here.

Shares of BioCryst Pharma closed at $11.86 yesterday.

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